Reddit discussion on what video games will be like in 2030

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Mar 13, 2020
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So long as they mean that active play graphics will be photorealistic rather than the experience as a whole will be indistinguishable from real life then sure, that's probably true. It's important to remember, though, that computer technology advances in fits and starts, not in a constant and linear fashion. If we go into a progress phase for home graphics hardware then sure, 10 years is plenty to get there given where we are today.

The other thing to note, I think, is that when they say "Video games will be..." it has to mean "Some video games will be.." as we've seen in the last 10-20 years that people do not require cutting edge media to enjoy games, and that the cost/benefit ratio for upscale, AAA, top of the line everything games is not necessarily a good one when compared to focusing on other aspects of a game. The Nintendo Wii, for example, focused not on better and better graphics like the XBox and Playstations did, and it was an overwhelming success because of it. If anything, that fact slowed down the focus on better and better graphics and toward smarter design.

There will also, I suspect, be a regression in graphics quality as they manage to get VR hardware more affordable as it takes more processing power to provide the images for VR than it does on a monitor... but the presentation automagically makes it feel more realistic to the user. I think that VR will be the next big push, and once that gets underway there will be more interest in the development of AR devices (people already build them, but its expensive and the consumer demand is low so far... that'll change). AR will definitely result in a major regression in terms of graphics quality as there will be very little call (at least initially) for realistic graphics... in fact, realistic graphics in AR will be one of the moral concerns of the age and will be the subject of much angry debate in... I dunno... 5-20 years? The timeframe for technological development is almost impossible to peg down.
 

huntgod

GalactHunt, Eater of Guilds
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The issue they will run into is the uncanny valley (which I mentioned in the thread) where hyper realism or photo realism will actually generate a negative effect because it will fail on some level and that small flaw in an otherwise perfect illusion is very problematic, so I think until you can really conquer that, you will continue to see some abstraction so your brain clearly identifies what you are seeing as a construct and artificial.
 
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The issue they will run into is the uncanny valley (which I mentioned in the thread) where hyper realism or photo realism will actually generate a negative effect because it will fail on some level and that small flaw in an otherwise perfect illusion is very problematic, so I think until you can really conquer that, you will continue to see some abstraction so your brain clearly identifies what you are seeing as a construct and artificial.
The thing is, there are some new tools besides more powerful processors/faster SSDs that might change that. AI in particular has developed a lot in the last decade, and is capable of things that were considered prohibitively expensive resource wise a few years ago, and spending a much smaller amount of processing power compared to what it would take using a brute force approach. Works for sound processing in noisy environments, works for things like smart shaders and upscaling that turn a 1080p image into a 4K image without letting the viewer notice, works to replace people with others in movies and it will eventually work to make fake environments completely believable. I don't know if we will get to that point in just 10 years but we WILL get there eventually.
 
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